The Jeff Report

2012-01-31T12:40:00.003-06:00

In my most recent post on 610Sports.com I talk about what KC sports fans can look forward to after the Super Bowl:

The bye week in between the Super Bowl always seemed completely arbitrary to me. After 20 weeks of grueling competition week after week, they league decides to give the teams a free break before the biggest games of their lives. On the surface this makes a lot of sense, it allows the teams more time to prepare and can give us a better game to watch. Yet, we all know the real reason is to drum up more publicity and make sure it’s the most watched event of the year (which it usually is).

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New 610 Post - What Can the Chiefs Learn From This Past Weekend?

2012-01-23T14:15:00.000-06:00

This weekend graced all of us with a great set of games for the the AFC and NFC championships. Both games went down to the wire, are ripe for what-ifs and will haunt both the Baltimore and San Francisco fan bases for years to come. Contained within these great games was something the Chiefs can use to learn, but will probably miss. For the full article follow this link:

http://www.610sports.com/pages/11209444.php?pid=203158

NEW 610 Post - What's Going on at One Arrowhead Drive?

2012-01-17T08:48:00.003-06:00

Kent Babb wrote an incredible article in the KC Star about the 'Arrowhead Anxiety' that permeating that entire organization. While no direct barbs were thrown, the article recounted from many former employees about how poor the environment was out there. There were some pretty interesting claims from former head coach Todd Haley, some insight into what it's like working at Arrowhead, and lots of reasons to be concerned with this organization as a fan. I delve into it a little bit more in depth in my post for 610sports.com this week. Link is below:

http://www.610sports.com/Jeff-Herr--What-is-Going-On-At-One-Arrowhead-Drive/11209444?pid=201638&postPreview=1&sId=1&isPreview=1&noCache=1

NEW 610 Sports Post - Crennel Hiring and Aftermath

2012-01-11T12:10:00.003-06:00

Originally, I wasn’t going to post about the Chiefs today. With the season over, the playoffs in full swing, and the dead period looming after the Super Bowl, it seemed prime time to pick up college basketball talk, or possibly even a Royals post. Then, the Chiefs went ahead and made it official that they would keep the status quo as Romeo Crennel became the 12th head coach in Chiefs history...

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Mission 2012: How Do the Royals Pitchers Stack Up?

2012-01-06T13:39:00.002-06:00

An interesting idea was proposed to me recently (via @groggon twitter): how does the front end of the projected Royals 2012 rotation, comparewith the playoff teams front end starters from 2011? Well, there is a lot that goes in to thisquestion.

First, it will have to be determined who the front endstarters for the Royals are. That, inand of itself, is pretty much the issue, but I digress. Right now, most will agree that the locks forthe rotation are Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Bruce Chen. Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy are theleaders in the clubhouse for the other two spots but Mike Montgomery, AaronCrow, and possibly Everett Teaford and Luis Mendoza will also factor in. If Montgomery or Crow show they’re ready forthe rotation the Royals will not hesitate to move Duffy or Paulino to the penor down to the minors.

That said, I think the front end of the rotation hasHochevar and Sanchez and locks and that 3^rd front end spot willprobably go to Chen but if Paulino pitches as he did last year it’s possible hecould snatch up that spot. In order tomove forward with this exercise we will have to determine who gets that #3 slot.

In 2011, Bruce Chen had, by all accounts, a pretty goodyear. With a 3.77 ERA, and a 12-8 recordChen was the best pitcher on staff, statistically. That is assuming you are just looking at the“surface level” stats. While I don’tever purport to be a SABRMetrics expert or a snob, at this point I think we canall agree that peripheral numbers are just as important as ERA. Looking at those, the case for Chen begins todissipate.

Even with the solid 12-8 record, Chen recorded his lowestK/9 rate of his career at 5.63. This isover a strikeout per nine innings less than his career average. Now, this also goes hand in hand with nearlythe lowest walk rate of his career at 2.90 BB/9. This is a half a walk less than his careeraverage, which puts him right about his career marks for K/BB ratio (1.94). When you dig a little deeper is where itget’s troublesome.

Chen put up a well below average 34.6% groundball rate. As an extreme flyball pitcher it’s no wonderthat Chen has fared well in Kauffman stadium. With his second consecutive year of 8.1% homerun to flyball ratio, Chenhas appeared to have been able to keep those non-groundballs in theballpark. His home/away HR/FB splits of7.8%/8.4% would lend credence to him being helped quite a bit by the friendlyconfines of Kauffman.

What’s further disconcerting about Chen is his xFIP of4.68. Basically, if the Royals defensewasn’t as good as it was, then he probably wouldn’t have had as good of aseason. Making matters worse is the .278BABIP that Chen allowed. The leagueaverage BABIP for pitchers is right around .300 so to expect Chen to continuewith this number is slightly illogical. Yet, Chen appears to be a slightly illogical pitcher. A .278 BABIP is actually higher than his 2010number and only .001 points below his career average. Perhaps Chen is a freak of a pitcher when itcomes to BABIP. Stranger things havehappened in major league baseball.

Over his career, Chen has been a bit of an enigma. He’s had 5 seasons in which he’s pitched over130 innings. In those five seasons hehas had 3 sub 4.00 ERA seasons, including a season of 3.83 ERA over 194 innings. The other two seasons included ERA’s of 4.83and 4.17 as well, so even if it’s above 4 it’s not the 5.59 career mark of KyleDavies or even close to Davies’ worst seasons as a starter. While his numbers may seem unsustainable, itcould just be the magic of Bruce Chen.

But what about Felipe Paulino? We don’t know much about Paulino and I don’tthink that anybody does really. TheRockies gave up on him after a horrific run of 18 games with a 7.36 ERA. For those 18 games, Paulino was pitching as areliever in a well known hitters park. Incontrast to his ridiculous ERA numbers was Paulino’s xFIP which sat 3.58 duringhis time in Colorado. He also put up a8.59 K/9 ratio. By most standards thisis a borderline elite number. Any timeyou can get nearly a strikeout per inning, you’re doing something right. His walk numbers were at 4.30 which is high,but those numbers put him right where Jonathan Sanchez was last year, if notbetter. His issue was his ridiculouslyhigh 1.84 HR/FB ratio. Paulino was clearlynot a pitcher cutout for the confines of Coors Field.

All of his numbers got better when he came to Kauffman. He only put up a 4-6 record with the Royals,but his numbers were much better than his record would show. Paulino maintained the solid 8.59 K/9 ratio,and improved his BB/9 ratio to 3.47. That’s nearly a whole walk per game improvement and all whilst throwingmore innings. This is a 2.47 K/BBratio. Let’s also keep in mind thateveryone was excited about Jonathan Sanchez who had a 1.54 K/BB ratio last yearand a 1.95 K/BB for his career.

Point is, while few were talking about Paulino last year, itshould have been more. His 4.11 ERA wasgood enough for a Royals pitcher but his 3.74 xFIP with the team was evenbetter. Playing in the pitcher friendlyconfines of Kauffman he only netted a 7.9% HR/FB ratio. Somewhere buried in all these stats is asolid #3 pitcher on a contending team ready to break out. Paulino has never pitched more than 139innings in a season (and that was 2011), has been jerked back and forth betweenthe bullpen and being a starter, and has never gone into a season being told“you’re the guy, you’re a starting pitcher, now start pitching.”

It’s reasonable to assume that given a situation where hewould go into 2012 as a starter he could pitch in that 150-200 inning range andput up 2011 Chen like numbers with the peripherals to back it up. The conclusion of all of this is that I’mgoing to pencil in Paulino as the #3 starter, hoping and praying the Royals aresmart enough to realize that he should be starting. They may feel obligated to Chen to give himthat spot based on the contract they gave him ($9M over 2 years plusincentives), but if the Royals are serious about winning then contractsshouldn’t matter. Chen will pitchregardless, it just may be the difference between a #3 and #4, which shouldn’tmatter.

Ok? Ok. We’re all in agreement here, our 1-3 pitchersare (most likely starting in this order) 1) Luke Hochevar, 2) Jonathan Sanchez,and 3) Felipe Paulino. The whole pointof this exercise is trying to figure out if the Royals have the pitching tocontend in 2012. In order to make adetermination on this, we will compare the 2011 seasons of our starting 3 with thestarting 3 of some of the playoff teams from the same year. Let’s get one thing out of the way, there isno reason to compare the Royals to the Phillies because the Phillies have anall-time great rotation, let alone one that we would expect to compete with. Instead of wasting time and words on thatfutile effort, we’re just going to go ahead and take them out of it.

Let’s start with everyone’s favorite: Luke Hochevar. Hochevar is a model of inconsistency. He has annoyed fans with his propensity toshow flashes of greatness followed by horrific blowups in the face ofadversity. This looked to be the make orbreak year for Hoch. He was either goingto prove he was worth the #1 pick or bust. Unfortunately, for the Royals he did just enough for us to think“well…maybe…” but not enough to be fully convinced.

After the All-Star break Hochevar really turned it onputting up a 3.55 ERA and a 6-3 record. Notonly did he give his dominating stretches we’d all seen before, but hemaintained a level of consistency we hadn’t seen before. There weren’t any 5 run blowup innings likein the past, he had a few below average outings, but he looked much strongerthan he ever had before. In his last 20innings pitched he maintained a 2.18 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and an elite levelK/BB mark of 3.33. If he can replicatethat over the next year he will win a Cy Young hands down. If he can be 85% of that, nobody willquestion him as the #1 pitcher of this staff.

Unfortunately, with Hochevar we will have to look at hisbody of work. While the former #1overall pick had his best year as a pro in 2011, it still wasn’t thatgreat. He finished the year with a 4.68ERA, 11-11 record, and an xFIP of 4.05. His K/9 was a Bruce Chen like 5.82 but his BB/9 was also a solid2.82. This amounts to a slightly above2.0 K/BB ratio, which is good enough for this staff. Where Hochevar gets in trouble is the homerunbug. He had a 1.05 HR/9 ratio whichequated to a 11.5% HR/FB ratio. Playingin Kansas City that is an impressive number; especially when you look at hissplits to see home/away numbers of 7.5%/17.5%. Those numbers are disastrous on the road.

So how does Hoch compare to the top pitchers in theleague? Greg Layton (@grogg on twitter)was kind enough to do the leg work for me on this. For 2011 the average #1 starter (based on thetop 9 pitchers from teams that made the playoffs last year) had a line with anERA of 2.72, and an average K/BB ratio of 4.19.^ The average WHIP is 1.060 andan xFIP of 3.14. Quality starts aredebatable how much those stats actually matter, but the top 10 pitchers fromthe playoffs last year had a quality start 74% of the time.

^To show again howgood the Phillies were, they had 3 pitchers that ranked in the top 4 of allplayoff starters, which is what those numbers were based on.

Matter of fact, of the top 3 projected starters for 2012(that I mentioned above), Paulino’s 2011 stats are the closest to a #1 starter,and they’re not even near to that level. It’s no surprise that the Royals don’t have an ACE that can match up tothose stats, but needs to be said all the same. Now, let’s put it out there how our projected 1-3 starters matchup tothe average 1-3 starters from playoff teams last year.^

^Again this is basedon rankings, so the average #1 starter is the average of the top 9 pitchersfrom playoff teams last year not all the #1 pitchers from each team, average #2is for pitchers 11-19, and average #3 is for pitchers 19-27, so there may besome #1’s who contributed to the #3 numbers, but the standards bear out for whoshould be included in each category.

Below are the top 27 pitchers from the playoffs in theprevious year:

	NAME	TEAM	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR	Rank
Tier 1	Roy Halladay	Philadelphia Phillies	78%	2.35	2.71	1.040	164	6.29	7.4	1
	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	82%	2.40	3.12	0.920	170	4.39	8.6	2
	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	78%	2.40	2.68	1.027	161	5.67	6.9	3
	Cole Hamels	Philadelphia Phillies	77%	2.79	3.02	0.986	138	4.41	5.4	4
	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	67%	3.00	3.02	1.226	147	3.77	6.9	5
	James Shields	Tampa Bay Rays	76%	2.82	3.25	1.043	132	3.46	6.1	5
	Ian Kennedy	Arizona Diamondbacks	73%	2.88	3.50	1.086	137	3.60	5.5	7
	Josh Beckett	Boston Red Sox	67%	2.89	3.58	1.026	147	3.37	6.2	8
	CJ Wilson	Texas Rangers	68%	2.94	3.41	1.187	152	2.78	5.0	9

	NAME	TEAM	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR	Rank
Tier 2	David Price	Tampa Bay Rays	62%	3.49	3.32	1.137	107	3.46	3.7	10
	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	62%	3.45	3.31	1.256	105	3.47	3.7	11
	Yovani Gallardo	Milwaukee Brewers	70%	3.52	3.19	1.215	111	3.51	2.7	12
	Zack Greinke	Milwaukee Brewers	64%	3.83	2.56	1.200	102	4.47	1.7	13
	Daniel Hudson	Arizona Diamondbacks	64%	3.49	3.79	1.203	113	3.38	2.6	14
	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	61%	3.47	3.62	1.257	122	2.43	4.8	15
	Jeremy Hellickson	Tampa Bay Rays	69%	2.95	4.72	1.153	126	1.63	4.2	16
	Shaun Marcum	Milwaukee Brewers	61%	3.54	3.89	1.156	110	2.77	3.3	17
	Kyle Lohse	St. Louis Cardinals	53%	3.39	4.04	1.168	107	2.64	2.6	18

	NAME	TEAM	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR	Rank
Tier 3	Jaime Garcia	St. Louis Cardinals	56%	3.56	3.31	1.320	102	3.12	0.9	19
	Derek Holland	Texas Rangers	59%	3.95	3.76	1.354	113	2.42	2.7	20
	Ivan Nova	New York Yankees	59%	3.70	4.16	1.331	119	1.72	3.6	21
	Max Scherzer	Detroit Tigers	48%	4.43	3.70	1.349	92	3.11	2.4	22
	Colby Lewis	Texas Rangers	59%	4.40	4.10	1.213	101	3.02	2.1	22
	Joe Saunders	Arizona Diamondbacks	61%	3.69	4.38	1.307	107	1.61	2.4	24
	Rick Porcello	Detroit Tigers	61%	4.75	4.02	1.407	86	2.26	1.0	25
	AJ Burnett	New York Yankees	31%	5.15	3.86	1.434	86	2.08	1.1	26
	John Lackey	Boston Red Sox	32%	6.41	4.70	1.619	66	1.93	-1.2	27

What follows here is how our projected 1-3 starters matchesup against the averages from those three groups:

	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR
Average #1 Starter	74%	2.72	3.14	1.06	149.78	4.19	6.44
Luke Hochevar	52%	4.68	4.05	1.28	87.00	2.06	1.70

	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR
Average #2 Starter	63%	3.46	3.60	1.19	111.44	3.08	3.26
Jonathan Sanchez	37%	4.26	4.36	1.44	84.00	1.55	0.10

	QS%	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	ERA+	K/BB	BR WAR
Average #3 Starter	52%	4.45	4.00	1.37	96.89	2.36	1.67
Felipe Paulino	45%	4.11	3.73	1.37	100.00	2.48	1.90

This tells us something we already really know, and it’smore of the same to most Royals fans. That said it’s still an interesting analysis. Felipe Paulino and Luke Hochevar have bothhit that 3^rd tierjust about right on the nose. Now, when you look at Hochevar after theAll-Star break, his numbers fit more in line with the average #2 starter.

Looking through these statistics it is apparent that theRoyals give up far too many walks. Sucha truth is what got long time pitching coach Bob McClure fired at season’send. Perhaps Dave Eiland can workwonders with this staff in that regard. If he can cut Sanchez’s walk numbers down by 2 BB/9, and maybe 0.8-1BB/9 improvement for both Paulino and Hochevar, he would be in line forassistant coach of the year.

This also shows us that at their peak performance, bothPaulino and Hochevar were #2-#3 level starters. Everyone knows this fan base has been clamoring for an ACE on thisstaff, but bear in mind that the St. Louis Cardinals won the world series anddidn’t have a single pitcher who ranked in the top tier last year, while thePhillies had three and didn’t even make it to the NLCS.

Point is, this team can not only compete, but win, withoutthat lock down ACE that everyone craves. While a true ACE can make the difference, it is a luxury more than anecessity to a championship team. Havingsolid pitching from 1-3 could possibly be more valuable than just a top levelACE (the Tigers prove that theory correct, and yet the Phillies debunk it, itsbaseball after all, nothing is absolute). Like a shut down closer, depth is more important than that top lineguy. At most an ACE can pitch 3 gamesand if you can’t win another one, then you’re SOL for a championship.

If Luke Hochevar keeps his second half momentum goingthrough next year, he could jump to that Tier 2 level starter. If Paulino has a full season with peripheralslike last year, he will be in that Tier 2-Tier 3 range. If Jonathan Sanchez goes back to his 2010form, he could also reach that Tier 2-Tier 3 level. If Chen pitches as he has the last two yearshe is solidly entrenched in the Tier 3 level. With the Royals missing an ACE, having four pitchers that could be 2-3level starters basically ensures them of being competitive. With this weak division, it could mean adivision championship. This is allwithout factoring in any improvement from Danny Duffy or a comeback year fromMike Montgomery.

There were a lot of “if’s” in the previous paragraph. This was, of course, intentional. The Royals will be much improved in 2012, butthere is still a lot we don’t know about this team. If things go the Royals we could be lookingat a division championship. If they gothe other way, it could be another 75 win season.

While the information provided here (again, hat tip to Greg)seemingly would go to show that the Royals are far away, it’s a little moreencouraging than that. With thisinformation we see that Justin Verlander is not a necessity to win achampionship. We also can see thathaving a solid rotation with no weak spots might even be more valuable. This does not show us that the Royals havesuch a thing, but it does show that they’re close than perception.

Like anybody else, I’m not sure what’s in store for theRoyals in 2012. Also, like everyone elseI know that a lot of it will depend on the pitching. The pursuit of the mythical ACE though, mightnot be as important as everyone tries to believe. The Royals can compete with who they havenow. It will take a lot of “ifs” but ifthey fall for the Royals, it could lead to a division crown. I also think that like everybody else, I’mhoping the Royals will be part of setting this bar next year, instead of justbeing compared to it.

New 610 Sports Post - Don't Get Too Excited About the Chiefs

2011-12-21T08:09:00.001-06:00

The Chiefs have shocked the world. The undefeated Green Bay Packers have been dismantled at the hands of Romeo Crennel and the "new-look" Kansas City Chiefs. Kyle Orton played about as flawless of a game as a Chiefs QB has played since the Trent Green era. The defense looked great holding Aaron Rodgers and the high octane Green Bay offense to only 14 points (7 of which came against the shell prevent defense). Also, don't look now, but the Chiefs still have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. If the Chargers lose, and the Chiefs beat the Raiders and th-you know what, let's not get ahead of ourselves. We've definitely been here before. Will going 8-8 and making the playoffs solve all of the Chiefs problems? I say no and bring up a few past examples that might make you think twice before getting excited about the future of the Chiefs.

Here's the link:

http://www.610sports.com/pages/11209444.php?pid=189176

Todd Haley Fired - Where do the Chiefs Go From Here?

2011-12-14T09:57:00.002-06:00

The Chiefs are in a very dark place. With Tyler Palko leading this injury riddledteam they have looked positively awful on the field. After garnering some positive energy with avictory against the Bears last week, the Chiefs came out and laid an eggagainst the Jets. They came outunprepared, had no energy, and got smacked around to the tune of 37-10. This all came against a Jets team that’s hadtheir own struggles with their polarizing quarterback Mark Sanchez.

This embarrassing loss turned out to be the nail in thecoffin for Todd Haley as the Chiefs head coach. Scott Pioli and the Chiefs brass have parted ways with Haley as ofMonday morning. No matter who they hire,they will spin this as being the move that solves the Chiefs problems.

This puts the Chiefs in a precarious situation thisoffseason. The civil unrest about thisteam in KC is at a record level. TheRoyals are looking up as an organization. The Jayhawks are the Jayhawks in basketball and have a new coach infootball. MU is having a great season in basketball anda new conference for football in 2012. Point being, there are exciting things going on in the local sports scenethat can take attention away from the Chiefs. In order to curb this momentum towards other sports, the Chiefs need tomake some noise this offseason.

The hiring of the head coach will be an opportunity to dothis. However, after a contentious relationshipwith Haley, Pioli will most likely be looking for a more malleable coach. Pioli has not shown the ability to lookoutside his network for hires. His nextcoach will most likely not be one that will make the fan base excited (JoshMcDaniels, anyone?). Pioli will have tomake a splash in a different way.

Enter Peyton Manning. Last week in an article on Pro Football Talk Peyton’s father Archie mentioned how he didn’t think that Peyton would want tosit behind a young quarterback. With theColts all but assured the #1 pick, and Andrew Luck being a near certainty, thiscould very well be in play.

Peyton has stated that his fate in Indianapolis will bedecided by March of next year. Right intime for the Colts to decide that they can take Andrew Luck in the 2012draft. There are a lot of moving parts,but basically with a restructuring of his contract Peyton Manning becomes avery tradable commodity. Without beingin position to grab Luck or the next best QB in the draft, the Chiefs would bejust the team the Colts would look to trade with.

We’ve been here before haven’t we? In 1993, the Marty Schottenheimer led Chiefshad a young and talented team that seemed to be ‘one player away.’ That was the status quo anyway. After going 1-3 in 3 straight trips to theplayoffs from 1990-1992, all they needed was that one player to get them overthe edge. Enter Joe Montana. The 4 time Super Bowl winner was acquired atthe age of 36 by the Chiefs for their first round draft choice, and led them tothe AFC Championship game. Manning willbe 36 next March, and word is the Colts will want at least one 1^stround draft choice.

The Chiefs are a more than plausible landing spot forManning. First, there are the reasonsthat make sense at surface level. Thosereasons being that the Chiefs will return Jamaal Charles next year whichinstantly makes their offense better. With Bowe, Baldwin and Breaston, Manning would have a receiving corethat is about as dynamic as any he’s played with in the last few years. Eric Berry and Brandon Siler will return tohopefully add even more to the Chiefs solid defense. Manning would be touted as the player to putthe Chiefs over the top to be legitimate Super Bowl/playoff contenders.

Whether that line of thinking is correct all would depend onhow Manning recovers from his neck injury that has kept him out all of2011. That’s not the major issue at playhere for Chiefs fans though. A move likethis by Pioli just brings us right back into the dregs of the Carl Petersonera. The issues that have plagued thisteam will continue into the future.

The Chiefs have systematic issues that run organizationwide. It starts with the mindset thatClark Hunt has put in place and is carried out by Pioli. The Chiefs have not shown the ability toproperly identify the correct talent for their system. Even if they have, they haven’t shown theability to spend money to get those players. The Chiefs haven’t been able to select the proper coaches for theirstaff, and if they have, haven’t been able to keep them. With all the issues the Chiefs have, one ortwo moves—such as a new QB and head coach—will not solve all the Chiefsproblems.

As a fan base the Chiefs fans have been beaten down yearafter year. The fundamental aspects ofbuilding an organization have been passed over time and again in order to takethe short cut to selling ticket sales. TheChiefs brought in Matt Cassel so they wouldn’t have to draft and develop a QBof their own. This wasn’t the first timeeither. Steve DeBerg, Steve Bono, ElvisGrbac, Trent Green, were all QBs drafted by and/or developed by otherteams. The Chiefs have been afraid totake the draft plunge on a 1^st round QB since they whiffed on ToddBlackledge in 1983.

Not drafting a QB was an organizational paradigm. For Lamar Hunt the scars of Blackledge weretoo deep. Peterson never showed anyinterest in drafting a QB either. Together they went 20 years and never took a chance. With Clark Hunt taking over and hiring Pioliin 2009, those organizational issues were supposed to disappear. This team was going to be built the right wayby someone who knew how to do it. A moveto get Peyton Manning just means the Chiefs will have the same status quo asthe last 25 years.

Manning will sell some tickets and some jerseys. Manning might even make the difference andget the Chiefs a playoff win. However, aSuper Bowl win doesn’t appear to be in the cards even with Manning at thehelm. This move would just mask the issues this teamstill has. Two years from now, theywould be right in the same situation they are now. With the Haley firing, this offseason ismaybe one of the most important in Chiefs history.

For an organization that has touted stability they have noneat the moment. In the 3 years Pioli hasbeen here they have had 3 head coaches, 4 offensive coordinators, 2 defensivecoordinators, and multiple other positions coaches. They need to make moves to stabilize thisorganization. This includes a head coachthis organization can live with more than 3 years. This includes a QB who can be the leader ofthis team for 10 years. This includesthe Chiefs looking at themselves and realizing there is no quick fix.

Peyton Manning is not the answer. Matt Cassel is not the answer. A head coach that Pioli can lord over is notthe answer either. This organization isteetering on the brink. They need to putthe pieces together before everything is too far gone.

NFL Lockdown vs. X-Girl Jamie-Lynn

2011-12-02T16:56:00.001-06:00

Well last week got a little crazy with the holidays so wemissed a week of picks. Unfortunately,when you don’t get paid to do a blog and only do it out of the goodness of yourheart, these things happen.

Fortunatelyfor you all, picks are back. This week Iwill picking against X-Girl Jamie-Lynn Davis. Jamie-Lynn is a very talented girl who can reportedly do a back-flip offof anything. She enjoys running, playingguitar, fishing, croquet (yes, croquet), surfing, hunting, and dancing.

Jamie-Lynn grew up in the state of Texas so she mostdefinitely knows her football. Currently, she has a 79.3 X-Rating while sporting a 128-61 record. As with the other X-Girls, Jamie-Lynn willmost definitely be a formidable opponent.

Here are how the picks break down for Jamie-Lynn and theJeff Report:

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Jamie-Lynn's Pick
Away	Home
Oakland	Miami	Oakland	Miami
Atlanta	Houston	Atlanta	Houston
Cincinnati	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
NY Jets	Washington	NY Jets	NY Jets
Tennessee	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo
Kansas City	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago
Baltimore	Cleveland	Baltimore	Baltimore
Carolina	Tampa Bay	Carolina	Tampa Bay
Indianapolis	New England	New England	New England
Denver	Minnesota	Denver	Denver
Green Bay	NY Giants	Green Bay	Green Bay
Dallas	Arizona	Dallas	Dallas
St. Louis	San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco
Detroit	New Orleans	Detroit	New Orleans
San Diego	Jacksonville	Jacksonville	Jacksonville

You can make your own pics at Edgehogs.com and you can follow Jamie-Lynn on Twitter here.

New 610 Post - What to be Thankful for as a Chiefs Fan

2011-11-29T08:22:00.001-06:00

My latest post for 610sports.com is up. There is a lot of negativity going on around the Chiefs right now, and rightfully so. After winning 4 in a row and being tied for 1st just a month ago, they have lost 4 straight and the season is looking dire. All that said, there are some bright spots here and some things to be positive about. Since I am the helpful blogger that I am I have decided to provide some things to be thankful for as a Chiefs fan. Coming off of Thanksgiving weekend and a tough Sunday night loss to the Steelers, we Chiefs fans definitely need some things to help us be positive.

Here is the link:

http://www.610sports.com/pages/11209444.php?pid=183413

The Jeff Report vs. X-Girl Emily...I Have Been Defeated

2011-11-22T09:20:00.001-06:00

It had to happen sooner or later, I suppose. My streak of winning against the X-Girls hasended at three. X-Girl Emily hasdefeated me. No doubt powered by herlove for the Tim Tebow-led Broncos Emily was able to compile an 11-3 recordagainst my 9-5. It was a good run, butit had to end sometime. X-Girl Emilyproved to be a formidable opponent and has picked up her X-Girl crew in theirseason long competition against The Jeff Report.

Here is where we all stand after Week 11:

Week 11 (The JeffReport): 9-5

Season (The JeffReport): 36-21

Week 11 (X-GirlEmily): 11-3

Season (X-Girls):34-23

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Emily's Pick
Away	Home
New York Jets	Denver	Denver	Denver
Buffalo	Miami	Miami	Buffalo
Cincinnati	Baltimore	Cincinnati	Baltimore
Jacksonville	Cleveland	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Oakland	Minnesota	Minnesota	Oakland
Carolina	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit
Tampa Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay
Dallas	Washington	Dallas	Dallas
Arizona	San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco
Seattle	St. Louis	St. Louis	Seattle
Tennessee	Atlanta	Tennessee	Atlanta
San Diego	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago
Philadelphia	New York Giants	Philadelphia	NY Giants
Kansas City	New England	New England	New England

NFL Lockdown Week 10 vs. X-Girl Emily

2011-11-17T14:54:00.001-06:00

Well, it was a win-lose result for me last week. Straight up, against X-Girl Sunny, I continuedmy winning streak with a 9-7 record. That was the ‘win’ part. The ‘lose’part came with my picks against the spread in which I had a horrible week andwas 6-10. It was only my second weekbelow .500 this year, so I guess I can’t complain too much, but it was still alackluster showing.

This week my competition is from the X-Girls is EmilyWilson.

Emily grew up in Westminster, CO which is in between Boulderand Denver. This naturally leads Emilyto being a Denver Broncos fan. Normally,we would not allow such things on the Jeff Report but since Emily is an X-Girland has a 99 rating, we’ll let that slide. Plus, I could use the competition. After all, I’m yet to lose to an X-Girl. That said, it will probably end this week as Emily and I differ on 6picks.

Back to Emily. Besides being a Bronco fan, she enjoys dancing, skateboarding,traveling, and reading science books. Ifshe could have one super power it would be to be invisible, presumably so thatshe could read science books without anybody bothering her. Perhaps if she were invisible she would alsosolve math equations for fun, but she does that anyway! Yes, we may have a female version of ‘GoodWill Hunting’ on hand except better because she loves sports!

Here are how Emily and I’s picks stack up for week 10 (as always, pics of Emily will be spread throughout for all to enjoy):

Last Week (The JeffReport): 9-7

Season (The JeffReport): 27-16

Last Week (X-GirlSunny): 8-8

Season (X-Girls):23-20

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Emily's Pick
Away	Home
New York Jets	Denver	Denver	Denver
Buffalo	Miami	Miami	Buffalo
Cincinnati	Baltimore	Cincinnati	Baltimore
Jacksonville	Cleveland	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Oakland	Minnesota	Minnesota	Oakland
Carolina	Detroit	Detroit	Detroit
Tampa Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay
Dallas	Washington	Dallas	Dallas
Arizona	San Francisco	San Francisco	San Francisco
Seattle	St. Louis	St. Louis	Seattle
Tennessee	Atlanta	Tennessee	Atlanta
San Diego	Chicago	Chicago	Chicago
Philadelphia	New York Giants	Philadelphia	NY Giants
Kansas City	New England	New England	New England

For those of you that would like to see Emily in motion (talking about her picks of course), you can check out her weekly picks video here.

On Twitter, you can follow X-Girl Emily here or Edgehogs here.

Here are my picks against the spread:

Last week: 6-10

Season: 55-41-2

New York Jets (-6) @Denver (+6) – Denver. It’s TebowTime.

Buffalo (+2) @ Miami(-2) – Miami. I’m riding the wave.

Cincinnati (+7) @Baltimore (-7) – Cincinnati. Don’tlet me down in the ‘Nati, they gotta come through for me sooner or later.

Jacksonville (+1) @Cleveland (-1) – Jacksonville. Stoptexting me Cleveland. It’s been over forweeks now.

Oakland (-1) @Minnesota (+1) – Minnesota. I’m justnot buying into the Raiders, too much ‘Hue-bris’ (see what I did there?).

Carolina (+7) @Detroit (-7) – Carolina shouldn’t be able to keep up and I’m not puttingmuch faith in them after getting burned the last couple of weeks.

Tampa Bay (+14) @Green Bay (-14) – Green Bay. AaronRodgers is a stone cold assassin. I don’tknow if we’ve ever seen a player play quarterback this good for this long of atime frame.

Dallas (-7.5) @Washington (+7.5) – Washington. Idon’t think Dallas is good enough to pull off a win more than a touchdown, evenas bad as Washington is.

Arizona (+9.5) @ SanFrancisco (-9.5) – Arizona. I likeSan Fran but they haven’t been in the practice of blowing teams out much.

Seattle (+1) @ St.Louis (-1) – St. Louis. Don’tbelieve in ‘ra-ra’ Pete Carrol.

Tennessee (+6) @Atlanta (-6) – Tennessee. Atlantawill be hungover from ripping defeat from the claws of victory like they did inovertime against the Saints last week.

San Diego (+3.5) @Chicago (-3.5) – San Diego. Chicagowins, but it’s close enough for San Diego to cover.

Philadelphia (+4.5) @New York Giants (-4.5) – Philadelphia. I think the birds are mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore. Now the pressure of the ‘dream team’ is offand I expect them to act accordingly.

Kansas City (+14.5) @New England (-14.5) – New England. It pains me, but the Chiefs are hopeless at this point. Poor coaching the last two games and nowwithout their starting quarterback makes for some real bad news.

NFL Lockdown vs X-Girl Sunny - The Streak Continues

2011-11-15T08:32:00.001-06:00

The results are in. It was a crazy week in the NFL but it will go down as another victorious week for the Jeff Report. Despite some borderline crazy picks, I was able to pull down a 9-7 record for my picks this week. This allowed me to narrowly defeat X-Girl Sunny who went 8-8 on the week. My knowledge of the AFC West again came up big as Oakland defeating San Diego was one of the big games I picked that swung the results in my favor. Unfortunately the Chiefs didn't come through for me again this week and I might be forced to actually pick against them now....

Here are the results:

Week 10 (The Jeff Report): 9-7

Season (The Jeff Report): 27-16

Week 10 (X-Girl Sunny): 8-8

Season (X-Girls): 23-20

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Sunny's Pick
Away	Home
Oakland	San Diego	Oakland	San Diego
New Orleans	Atlanta	New Orleans	Atlanta
Arizona	Philadelphia	Arizona	Arizona
Tennessee	Carolina	Carolina	Carolina
Houston	Tampa Bay	Houston	Houston
Washington	Miami	Washington	Miami
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Denver	Kansas City	Kansas City	Kansas City
Buffalo	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas
St. Louis	Cleveland	Cleveland	St. Louis
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Baltimore	Seattle	Baltimore	Baltimore
NY Giants	San Francisco	San Francisco	NY Giants
Detroit	Chicago	Chicago	Detroit
New England	NY Jets	NY Jets	New England
Minnesota	Green Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay

NFL Lockdown - Week 10

2011-11-10T16:54:00.001-06:00

This week on NFL Lockdown The Jeff Report will be going head-to-head with X-Girl Sunny Reichert. Sunny is a big fan of all things vintage and antique and has a major sweet tooth. She grew up in Plainfield, IL which is about 40 minutes southwest of Chicago. She has been a dancer all her life, loves it, going to the beach, hanging with friends and her 'little man' Wrigley (dog).

Currently Sunny represents another formidable opponent as she has accumulated a 99.5 X-Rating with a record of 214-94 so far this season. We differ quite a bit on our picks so it will be a big week for one of us, we will see who...

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 18-9
Last Week (X-Girl Lauren): 7-7
Season (X-Girls): 15-12

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Sunny's Pick
Away	Home
Oakland	San Diego	Oakland	San Diego
New Orleans	Atlanta	New Orleans	Atlanta
Arizona	Philadelphia	Arizona	Arizona
Tennessee	Carolina	Carolina	Carolina
Houston	Tampa Bay	Houston	Houston
Washington	Miami	Washington	Miami
Jacksonville	Indianapolis	Jacksonville	Jacksonville
Denver	Kansas City	Kansas City	Kansas City
Buffalo	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas
St. Louis	Cleveland	Cleveland	St. Louis
Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Baltimore	Seattle	Baltimore	Baltimore
NY Giants	San Francisco	San Francisco	NY Giants
Detroit	Chicago	Chicago	Detroit
New England	NY Jets	NY Jets	New England
Minnesota	Green Bay	Green Bay	Green Bay

You can go up against Sunny's picks on Edgehogs here:

http://www.edgehogs.com/profiles/sunny-reichert/

You can follow X-Girl Sunny on Twitter here and Edgehogs here.

You can go up against my picks on Edgehogs here:

http://www.edgehogs.com/profiles/jeff-herr/

Here are my picks against the spread:

Last week: 10-4

Season: 49-31-2

Oakland (+7) @ San Diego (-7) – Oakland. Way too big of a spread for a inter-divisionrivalry game.

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Cincinnati (+3) – Cincinnati. This is my upset special this week. Cincy is doing everything right so far and Iexpect Pitt to still be hungover a bit from the heartbreaking loss to theRavens.

Denver (+3.5) @ Kansas City (-3.5) – Kansas City. I don’t think the Chiefs will lay an egg twoweeks in a row. Then again, I’ve beenproving wrong before.

Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis (+3) – Jacksonville. Indy just doesn’t have anything going right atthe moment.

Buffalo (+5.5) @ Dallas (-5.5) – Buffalo. I think Dallas is going to win this one, butit’s probably going to be close.

Houston (-3) @ Tampa Bay (+3) – Houston. They finally have something going in Houstonand I think they keep it going here.

Tennessee (+3.5) @ Carolina (-3.5) – Carolina. I think they expose a little bit more of whatthe Titans are, or rather, are not.

Washington (+4) @ Miami (-4) – Miami. I believe the Dolphins are going to have a monkeyoff their back and are gonna ride the wave against the Redskins.

New Orleans (-1) @ Atlanta (+1) – Atlanta. New Orleans has been struggling and I givethe Falcons the edge at home.

St. Louis (+3) @ Cleveland (-3) – St. Louis. I told you Cleveland, I’m done. Stop texting and calling me.

Arizona (+14) @ Philadelphia (-14) – Philadelphia. So Kolb isn't playing? 14 points is a HUGE line in the NFL but I see no reason to expect Arizona to be competitive in any way this week.

Baltimore (-6.5) @ Seattle (+6.5) – Baltimore. I think the Ravens have solidified themselvesas one of the top 5 teams in the league and the Seahawks are…not. Can’t believe the spread isn’t bigger.

Detroit (+3) @ Chicago (-3) – Detroit. The Lions got back to their winning ways andI expect that to continue.

New York Giants (+3.5) @ San Francisco (-3.5) – New YorkGiants. I like what Harbaugh is doingbut I still don’t fully trust the 49ers. The Giants are gonna harass Alex Smith. This one should be close.

New England (+1.5) @ New York Jets (-1.5) – New England. Still not buying the Jets.

Minnesota (+13) @ Green Bay (-13) – Green Bay. I really don’t think anybody can compare tothe Packers right now. Especially notMinnesota.

The Melk-man Goeth

2011-11-10T12:37:00.001-06:00

You know it’s gonna be a legit post when I have not one buttwo hyphenated play on words in the title. Oh yeah, that’s right Royals fans our GM made a move we can all be proudof. Technically, he made two moves thatshould make us proud. The signing ofMelky Cabrera in December of 2010 was universally panned. Even as low risk as it was, nearly everybodysaw no value in bringing in a traditionally overweight, underachieving centerfielder, who isn’t really a center fielder. Not to mention, no more than 10 days later the Royals acquired a brightyoung center field talent through the Zack Greinke trade in Lorenzo Cain.

Eventually Melky won the starting job, Cain was relegated toAAA and the season began. What happenedwas a career year for Cabrera. TheMelk-man put up a line of (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) .305/.339/.470/.809 with 18 HRs and87 RBIs. This was a career year forCabrera and makes him look like a borderline all-star. He didn’t walk much, but his strike ratewasn’t outlandish either, he made a lot of contact and got a lot of hits. Having a .332 BABIP showed that it wasn’t asmuch luck as you would think. It’s notunheard of for a good hitter to pull off that kind of BABIP for an extendedperiod of time. However, someone likeCabrera gives you doubts in that department. All in all, Cabrera was near the top of the team while accumulating a4.2 WAR.

This proved to be a valuable signing. By all accounts Melky was a positiveinfluence in the clubhouse and he was a positive influence on the field. He is not a “true” center fielder, he lacksthe range and athleticism the position requires, but he did an adequatejob. He didn’t make a lot of plays butthere weren’t many plays he didn’t make either (that he should have). He legitimately was worth the solid WAR heput up for the 2011 season.

That value led to other teams inquiring about Melky for helpin their outfields. One of the teams wasthe San Francisco Giants. Who knows whoinitiated the trade but the Giants got Melky to bolster center field and theRoyals got Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo (both LHPs).

Sanchez is an immediate upgrade of the Royals pitchingstaff. That said, the Giants were buyinglow on Sanchez. He was a legitimatereason for the Giants World Series championship in 2010. That season he had a 3.07 ERA, a 3.94 xFip(with a 4.00 FIP) so his ERA mark was a pretty accurate portrayal of how he wasactually pitching. He also managed tostrike out a nasty 9.54 batters per nine innings. This immediately makes Sanchez the beststrikeout pitcher the Royals have had since Greinke (assuming the light doesn’tcome on for Danny Duffy or Mike Montgomery this year).

The Giants are buying low on him because of his 2011season. His most recent season saw hisERA jump to 4.26 with a 4.36 xFIP (and 4.30 FIP). Again, his ERA showed a pretty accurateportrayal. His strike rate stayed prettyconsistent with a 9.06/9 rate, but then it gets ugly. He had a career high walk rate of5.86/9. This is awful even by Royalsstandards.

This is the crux of why the Royals were able to get Sanchezat such a “low” price. He has had walkissues his entire career. He averagesallowing 4.78 BB/9 on his career. Now,his K rate is up there at 9.36/9 for his career, but that can only help you somuch. Nobody wants to be in the businessof giving free bases.

There is also another factor at play here. Since Sanchez and Cabrera don’t play the sameposition, they are not equitable. Weknow Lorenzo Cain is now the owner of center field, but who will Sanchez bootout of the rotation? My guess is thatJeff Francis is out. This means that wehave to hope that the combination of Lorenzo Cain and Jonathan Sanchez isbetter than Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francis.

First, let’s take a look at what Francis and Cabrera gave uslast year. A cursory glance at Francis’stats makes him look like a poor pitcher. He compiled a 6-16 record with a 4.82 ERA. However, a deeper look will tell he wasn’t asbad as his stats showed. His xFIP wasonly 4.29 and his BABIP was .316, slightly above his career average. He had a ridiculously low 8.5% HR/FB ratio,which was no doubt helped by the pitcher friendly confines of Kauffmanstadium. He also had a solid 47.1%ground ball rate. All factors thatcontributed to his 2.6 WAR, despite his ugly W-L and ERA numbers.

With Cabrera’s previously mentioned 4.2 WAR that means thetwo players combined had a total WAR of 6.8. That is what will need to be replaced on this team. Despite what it looks like on the surface,these two players were very valuable to the 2011 Royals.

Let’s look at best case scenario. In Sanchez’ best year (2010) he had a WAR of2.4 to go with his 13-9 record and 3.07 ERA (shows you how valuable those statsreally are when they were that much better than Francis in 2011 and his WAR waslower). If Cain is the player he was atAAA last year, he will probably net somewhere in the 3.0 WAR range. If that scenario plays out we have replaced a6.8 WAR with roughly 5.4 WAR. Seems likea bad deal, but there’s more at play here.

First of all, we’re comparing supposed WAR with WAR fromlast year. That doesn’t quite equate. Let’s look at this realistically and see whatwe could expect from Cabrera and Francis in 2012 if they were a part of theteam.

Looking forward, I don’t know that we could expect a 4.2 WARagain from a player who had a Career WAR of 2.5 going in to this past season. Let’s assume that Cabrera is 85% of what hewas last year. That would put him at .260/.288/.400/.688with 15 HRs and 74 RBIs. This would put the3.0-3.5 WAR in play. I don’t believe itto be a stretch to say that Cain can duplicate, and possibly even improve onthose stats next year.

We’re going to do the same exercise with Francis. AT 85% of what he was last year we’re lookingat 5.67 ERA on 155 innings pitched with roughly the same record. I believe it’s safe to say that he would havea WAR closer to the 1.5-2.0 range. Sanchez can do no worse than that with his talent.

Let’s say that Cabrera gives a 3.0 WAR and Francis gives a1.8 WAR, just to be conservative. Thatputs us at a 4.8 WAR. Is it a stretch tosay that Cain could provide a 2.8 WAR and Sanchez a 2.0? I think both of those numbers are easilyachievable. This turns the trade into awash ultimately. So why make the deal?

Well, we’re giving up one year of control on Melky, who wasnot going to sign again with the Royals, for one year of control ofSanchez. We also got a minor leaguer inRyan Verdugo whom we control for 6 years once he reaches the majors. We also have control over Cain for 6years. This makes the trade have muchmore value to the Royals.

Outside the statistical analysis of the trade, I like it alot. Still. Sanchez may be a slight head case, but he hastop level talent. He has thrown ano-hitter before. That type of “stuff”doesn’t grow on trees. He has hisfaults, such as less than ideal ground ball rate, but he has a decent HR/FBrate which should only improve in the confines of Kauffman. Cain is a more than adequate upgrade forMelky defensively and should be able to hold his own at the plate.

This is probably Dayton Moore’s best trade yet as RoyalsGM. He sold high and bought low at thesame time. Maybe you can call the tradesequal but you can’t say the Royals got screwed. Everyone knows what the Royals problem is, and Moore went and didsomething about it. He got a high upsideguy who could factor into the Royals future, or at least be a decent one yearrental. He put another one of our youngplayers in the starting lineup. There isnot much to dislike about this trade. That said, I certainly hope Moore is not done because Sanchez does notmake the Royals a contender all by himself.

My Apology to Alex Gordon

2011-11-09T13:33:00.001-06:00

I have to say it. This goes out to Alex Gordon; I am sorry. There were people who had given up on the manwe lovingly now call A1 (thanks to his text-in all star vote tag as well as thesolid compliment to Billy Butlers “Country Breakfast” nickname). I was one of them. I said we should have traded Gordon beforethis year while there was still hope for him. He still had some value because you could convince a team that he stillmight figure it out. One more season ofsubpar play and that ship would have sailed.

The question is did I really have reason to think differentlyof any of this? Gordon was the epitomeof what we had been promised for years as Royals fans. Somebody was going to come along and savethis franchise. Somebody was going tocome along and the George Brett for a new generation. Enter Alex Gordon. He played 3^rd base, he threw withhis right hand, and he hit with his left hand, all just like Brett.

Gordon was college player of the year in 2005 when he wasdrafted. In 2006, his first full year inthe minors, Gordon dominated in a way we had never seen. He had a line of (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS).325/.427/.588/1.015 with 29 HRs and 101 RBIs. This was enough to make him Minor League Player of the year. He was going to be the guy who could put upthe same numbers in the pros and be the legit superstar to bring this franchiseback to its greatness.

Things never seem to go as planned. Gordon’s first year in the majors wasunderwhelming at best. Starting with hisopening day strikeout with the bases loaded, things didn’t go well. He ended with a suspect, if not acceptablefor a rookie, line of .247/.314/.411/.725 with 15 HRs and 60 RBIs. Not great, but enough to at least give ushope.

2008 saw his line improve to .260/.351/.432/.783 with 16HRs, and 59 RBIs. Again not great, buthe showed some steady improvement. Manypeople were calling for a bigger jump, but even at this point I still had hope.

2009 started with an injury. This was supposed to be his breakout year. It was hampered by his injury and so were hison-field results. His third season wentdown as yet another less than stellar year in his young career.

2010 was where it really went downhill. Halfway through the season Gordon was sentdown to AAA and was told to learn a new position; left field. This was the last ditch effort forGordon. You could blame injuries ormoving through the system too fast, but ultimately he wasn’t producing and thiswas his last chance. He had to learn anew position and get things together at the plate if he wanted a future in themajors, let alone with the Royals.

At the end of the 2010 season Gordon was asked what histhoughts were for 2011 and his reply was mocked in the media. “I’m going to dominate,” he said. If the Royals were a network sitcom (whichthey’ve been close to at times) this is where the laugh track would have beeninserted.

I would have gladly added some laughter to that track. At this point, I was calling for Gordon to beshipped off. Send him away and get ustwo low-level, high risk/high reward prospects in return and move on from thisera. I was done with Alex Gordon andthought a change of scenery would be best for both parties.

Boy was I wrong. 2011came along and the first month of the season started out with a bang. Gordon started the first month of the season ona tear. Hitting .329 with a .936 OPS, 2HRs, and 19 RBIs, Gordon looked like a completely different player. He had a new approach at the plate, seemed tobe seeing the ball better, had a newer more relaxed swing and just plain lookedmore comfortable at the plate.

The big test was going to be whether or not Gordon couldkeep this up for the whole season. Afterslumping in month two to the tune of .234 batting average and .742 OPS, thefirst month looked like a blip on the otherwise underwhelming graph of Gordon’scareer. Then something began tohappen. He found his stroke from thefirst month of the season again and continued for nearly the rest of the seasonbatting .300 or better.

Gordon ended 2011 with a line of .303/.376/.502/.878 with 23Hrs and 87 RBIs, all of which are career highs. This is the player we were supposed to see in 2007 and 2008. This was the player who was supposed to be akey cog in the wheel of the Royals future. Oh yeah, and he was playing pretty good defense too.

The buzz on Gordon as a rookie was that he could be a goldglover down the road…at third base. Heproved that to be true, but just at a different position. Last week Gordon was awarded the gold glovefor the left field position for 2011. Heled all majors in assists with 20 and had a .991 fielding percentage. Defensive metrics lag behind offensive onesconsiderably, but those are some of the best quantitative measures we have togo on. And anybody who watched Gordonmake plays knew that he had become a special talent patrolling the corneroutfield spot.

When Gordon originally came up he didn’t strike me as aplayer that the fan base could get behind. He was surly with the media, seemed to be cocky, and just didn’t endearhimself to the fans. None of that is aproblem so long as you produce, which Gordon didn’t. The fans began to sour on Gordon as hisproduction continued to be low.

I for one didn’t like the guy. He didn’t seem like somebody who was good forthe team, he seemed like an individual, and regardless of talent I thought theRoyals were better off without him. Again, I was proven inexorably wrong.

Failure can do many things to people. It can beat some down, it can defeat others,but it can make others stronger and better than ever before. It seems that failure has done this to AlexGordon. He has turned himself into abudding superstar. He is a player whohas said, without actually saying, that he will take a hometown discount tostay in KC. He now appears to be ahumble appreciative player. Heconstantly thanks the fans, makes appearances, and does charity work.

Gordon may just be the case of someone who never had to growup and never experienced failure. Withfailure he really had to look at himself and his life and he matured. He is now the player we thought he would beand more importantly he is the person we need on the Royals. As a franchise KC is in a position where theyboth benefit and are hamstrung by their financial abilities. The Yankees would have cut bait withGordon. The Royals had to stick with him,but nonetheless chose to do it as well. Had they not, perhaps his career would not have gotten on track. Lucky for the Royals and all of us, they didstick with him. And I am sorry for everdoubting.

Buck 100

2011-11-08T13:02:00.002-06:00

New 610 Post alert. Recently, I had the pleasure of talking to Bob Kendrick, President of the Negro League Baseball Museum while on the Royalman Report. Bob was able to share some stories about Buck and give us the heads up on events coming up this weekend for the Buck 100 events they are planning on having. It was a special show and the Buck 100 events are going to be great for the Negro League Baseball Museum and Kansas City itself. Head on over to 610 to read the post here:

http://www.610sports.com/pages/11209444.php?pid=179876

You can listen to the podcast and find all you want to know about the Royalman Report and how to follow the podcast here:

http://kingsofkauffman.com/podcast/

NFL Lockdown vs. X-Girl Lauren - Still Undefeated

2011-11-08T08:36:00.000-06:00

Well the results are in and with Chicago’s victory overPhiladelphia last night I finished my week at a solid 9-5 in the picksdepartment. Arizona came through bigtime in overtime for me, but more than anything it was Tim Tebow. No doubt my extensive knowledge of how theAFC West works helped with that pick. The Broncos put a hurt on the Raiders and it was the win that put meover the top for the week.

X-Girl Lauren finished 7-7 on the week and it was the twoaforementioned games that were her undoing. I feel as though I should give Lauren an extra point though for stickingwith my Chiefs as they got stomped by a winless Miami Dolphins team. X-Girl Lauren will remain a winner in TheJeff Report’s book for her Chiefs support alone.

The Jeff Report remains undefeated against the X-Girls:

The Jeff Report (Week 9): 9-5

The Jeff Report (Season): 18-9

X-Girl Lauren (Week 9): 7-7

X-Girls (Season): 15-12

Here are the results:

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Lauren's Pick
Away	Home
Atlanta	Indianapolis	Atlanta	Atlanta
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	New Orleans	New Orleans
Cleveland	Houston	Houston	Houston
New York Jets	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo
Miami	Kansas City	Kansas City	Kansas City
San Francisco	Washington	San Francisco	San Francisco
Seattle	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas
Denver	Oakland	Denver	Oakland
Cincinnati	Tennessee	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
St. Louis	Arizona	Arizona	St. Louis
New York Giants	New England	New England	New Enlgand
Green Bay	San Diego	Green Bay	Green Bay
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Chicago	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Philadelphia

NFL Lockdown – Week 9 With X-Girl Lauren from Edgehogs.com

2011-11-04T14:15:00.001-05:00

Editors note: For those of you who are unfamiliar with Edgehogs and the X-Girls, check out my original Edgehog/X-girl post here

Last week I narrowly defeated X-Girl Meridith with mypicks (click the link to see our results). She was a formidable opponent,but the Jeff Report was able to hold her off. This week, X-Girl Lauren will step up to the plate and see if she canout pick me.

A little bit about my opponent this week, X-Girl Lauren:

Lauren grew up in El Dorado Hills, CA, which is a town about30 miles east of Sacramento. She enjoyshanging out with friends, playing any kind of sport, going to the beach (thatmust be nice, not too many beaches here in KC), and her personal favorite:eating. Lauren was on a statechampionship winning basketball team in her high school years (something I havein common with her from my state champion lacrosse days in HS). Needless to say, it sounds like I will be upagainst someone who, yet again, knows their sports very well.

Currently, Lauren holds a 206-90 record on the season with herNFL picks. If that wasn’t impressiveenough then she has an ‘X-Rating’ of 99.5. She will be some solid competition for the Jeff Report. Here is how our picks compare:

Last Week (The JeffReport): 9-4

Season (The JeffReport): 9-4

Last Week (X-GirlMeridith): 8-5

Season (X-Girls):8-5

Game		The Jeff Report's Pick	X-Girl Lauren's Pick
Away	Home
Atlanta	Indianapolis	Atlanta	Atlanta
Tampa Bay	New Orleans	New Orleans	New Orleans
Cleveland	Houston	Houston	Houston
New York Jets	Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo
Miami	Kansas City	Kansas City	Kansas City
San Francisco	Washington	San Francisco	San Francisco
Seattle	Dallas	Dallas	Dallas
Denver	Oakland	Denver	Oakland
Cincinnati	Tennessee	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
St. Louis	Arizona	Arizona	St. Louis
New York Giants	New England	New England	New England
Green Bay	San Diego	Green Bay	Green Bay
Baltimore	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
Chicago	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Philadelphia

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You can compare your picks with X-Girl Lauren here:

You can compare your picks with The Jeff Report here:

Here are my results from last week against the spread and mypicks for this week as well:

Last Week: 8-5

Season: 39-27-2

Atlanta (-7) @Indianapolis (+7) - Atlanta. Indywill continue to struggle. Ilegitimately think they won’t win a game this year.

Tampa Bay (+8.5) @New Orleans (-8.5) – Tampa Bay. Iknow NO dropped 62 on Indy a couple weeks back, but they also lost to STL lastweek by 10. Until they show a littlemore consistency I won’t be picking them to win by 9+ against a divisionopponent.

Cleveland (+10.5)@Houston (-10.5) – Houston. I toldyou, I’m done with you Cleveland. I willall your stuff in a box outside my door. Please make sure I’m not home when you come pick it up.

New York Jets (+2) @Buffalo (-2) – Buffalo. I’m ridingthe Buffalo train. And I just hadBuffalo wings for lunch, so I’m probably blinded by the sauce, but the pointstands, the Bills are a legit team.

Miami (+4) @ KansasCity (-4) – Dolphins. This one wastough. I think the Chiefs will pull outa win but a 4 point spread is a little much. I think Dolphins are going to cover this spread. They may look like the ugly girl at theparty, but when you break down their stats, you might find yourself saying “youknow what? She’s cool, and fun to hang out with, looks are not that important.

San Francisco (-3.5)@ Washington (+3.5) – San Francisco. Washington has been exposed and Shanahan has mailed it in thisyear. He needs to be fired. And around and around we go. Such is the days of our lives, starringDaniel Snyder as Stefano (props to you if you caught the reference).

NFL Lockdown Lock of the Week - Seattle (+11.5) @Dallas (-11.5) – Dallas. With theexception of last week Dallas has not had a blowout loss and all their lossesare to legit top 10 teams in the league. Seattle will be a good chance for them to wake up and for Tony Romo to finallyshake off the rust, you know, now that he knows Jessica Simpson’s baby isn’this, or Justin Biebers.

Denver (+7.5) @Oakland (-7.5) – Denver. I hate theBroncos and am not a fan of Tim Tebow but there is something about the rivalrybetween these two that for one reason or another they usually play each othertight no matter how good or bad each one is.

Cincinnati (+3) @Tennessee (-3) – Cincinnati. Tennessee has also been exposed as a poser. They are an 8-8 team at best and the Bengalshave a top 5 defense.

St. Louis (+2) @Arizona (-2) – Arizona. This is atotal lack of respect to Arizona. I knowthey haven’t played great all season, but STL is awful and without theirstarting QB. Larry Fitzgerald should beable to eat up this secondary and Kevin Kolb needs to set it on fire. No reason STL should win this game, even ifthey did just come off a victory against the Saints.

New York (+9) @ NewEngland (-9) – New York. The Giantsare overrated but I still they are good enough to not get beat by the Pats by10+ points.

Green Bay (-5.5) @San Diego (+5.5) – Green Bay. I don’tcare if it is in San Diego. The Whale’sVagina Chargers are going to get toasted up and down the field by the best andmost complete team in the league. I rememberwhen I used to watch wresting in grade school and one of the wrestlers thoughtthey could box ButterBean and hold him off. Well ButterBean had about 100lbs on the guy and smoked inside of aminute. Yeah, that situation = thissituation. The Chargers think they canhang but they will find out what a real football team looks like.

Baltimore (+3) @Pittsburgh (-3) – Pittsburgh. Thisone is tough. I think Pitt is the betterteam but you never know when this matchup occurs. It’s going to be close and it might actuallybe 3 points, but if it’s not I think the scales tip in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Chicago (+7.5) @Philadelphia (-7.5) – Chicago. Ithink the Eagles may have found their stride but I think the Bears can hangaround within a touchdown on this team. The Eagles may be better than their 1-4 start, but they are stillstruggling to find consistency.